It's January 2019 - How's the Market?

I absolutely LOVE this question - especially NOW that I've been in real estate long enough to really KNOW the market and the nuances of what's going on and trending.

In my professional opinion, there has never been a better time to buy or sell real estate in South Florida!  

There has never been a more {for lack of a better word} "fair" market for both buyers and sellers!  Prices are back where they need to be -- back up to pre-2009 "before the downturn" prices! 

Which brings me to another question I have been getting a lot these days, "Do you think the real estate market is going to crash?" 

The simple answer - NO -- think about it this way -- YES home values in Miami-Dade and Broward counties are way up as compared to 2009-2012, when property values went way down due to the nationwide economic crisis. . .  BUT the difference between "now" and "then" is simple - imagine if home values had not been artificially increased between 2004-2008, the price increases would have been a "normal" increase in values from year to year (in Florida, in a normal economy, that estimate would be anywhere between 3-7% a year, depending on location and other variables). . .  which would lead us to "where we are now" - IF the market had been stable from then - 2004 or so - to now -- 2019 -- THIS is where we would have ended up anyway -- even with slight fluctuations up and down. Does that make sense? 

So, NO, I do not believe our current {normal, stable} market is going to "crash". There are many reasons for this stability -- but the main one being -- during the downturn, many properties were purchased 'cash' - and thereafter, with the tighter regulations on lending, the buyers after 2009 obtaining loans - from 2009 - today - have been 'very strong' buyers with good credit and skin in the game.

Now, the second part of the question I get asked, "But, prices are high in some areas, do you think they will go down at all?" 

The answer to that one is - MAYBE, A LITTLE - especially with the increase in interest rates. . . Currently for someone with good credit, the interest rate on a conventional loan is somewhere between 5% and 5.5%  . . . That is up significantly from the last few years {we have been so spoiled} with interest rates in the 3's and 4's.  I anticipate prices to adjust a little in the {high housing demand} single family home sector -- due to buyer financial ratios and monthly payment constraints. For example - a 1% interest increase on a $400,000 home with a 20% down payment will increase the monthly mortgage payment by approximately $200 a month. This is significant where the average price of a 3 or 4 bedroom home in a good school district is around $400,000 right now. 

So, what's the bottom line?

The current population of the state of Florida is over 21 million! The final tally is not in yet, but it's estimated that around 400,000 people have moved to Florida in 2018.*  With the snow storms in the Midwest and Northeast, and the aging "Baby Boomer" population, I can not see a time when people will "stop" moving to Florida. . . Florida real estate will always be HOT for this reason!  Will we have fluctuations in the market due to economic factors? Absolutely. But, as a whole, South Florida is a beautiful place to live - diversity of people, places, and things, and, therefore, will always be a long term safe real estate bet financially!

For those of you who like to "geek-out" on studies and information like I do, check out this study that just came at the end of December out by FAU's College of Business:

https://business.fau.edu/departments/finance/real-estate-initiative/real-estate-reports/where-are-we-now-with-housing-december-2018.php

*Population Data Source: 

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/florida-population/